On October 27, 2025, the Bitcoin market saw a major surge due to the easing of trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies, the US and China. In a single day, Bitcoin’s price rose by about 3.5%, reaching $115,400. This is considered a promising recovery from the drop that occurred after hitting the all-time high of $126,000. This rapid movement of Bitcoin reaffirms that the crypto market is now primarily driven by Macro Economic Sentiments rather than solely by technical factors.
The Key Event that Fueled the Surge: Geopolitical Shift
The primary reason for Bitcoin’s sudden rise was the preliminary trade framework agreement reached by US and Chinese officials in Malaysia over the weekend.
Demand for Risk-On Assets: As these negotiations reduced tensions and eased fears of new restrictions, global investors began reinvesting in Risk-On Assets. As the traditional stock market and Asian stock indices advanced, Bitcoin followed suit.
Expert Opinion: Experts like Daniel Liu, CEO of Republic Crypto, clarified that “What we are seeing is not a structural change in trading fundamentals. Rather, it is a Reflexive Move by traders pricing in looser monetary controls and a softer macroeconomic environment.” This means that expectations of higher liquidity and lower interest rates are supportive of risk-on assets.
Bitcoin’s Next Phase and Q4 Targets
Despite this surge, deep discussions about the market trend continue.
Short-Term Challenges (Short-Term Trajectory)
It is crucial for Bitcoin to sustain its position above $115,000. On the one hand, technical and On-Chain data suggest some caution.
Recovery Lacking Support: According to Tiger Research analysts, key on-chain indicators like Transaction Count and Active Users have not yet confirmed this price recovery. This indicates that while Institutional Buying is strong, widespread Retail Demand has not fully returned.
Key Resistance Line: For traders, the range of $115,000 to $118,000 is a crucial Resistance line. Only a confirmed Weekly Close above this level will pave the way for the next rapid high.
Fourth Quarter (Q4) Expectation and the $200K Target
While the easing of trade tensions provides temporary support, experts remain strongly confident in their long-term outlook for the fourth quarter.
Historically Favorable Q4: Historically, October (Uptober) and the subsequent fourth quarter have been very favorable for Bitcoin.
$200,000 Target Confirmed: Tiger Research analysts have reiterated their $200,000 target. The key drivers for this are:
- Continuation of Institutional Capital: Continuous large capital inflows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs.
- Global Liquidity: The expectation that central banks, unable to control inflation, will loosen the money supply (Liquidity).
- Federal Reserve: The potential stance of the Fed to cut interest rates would provide a massive boost to risk-on assets like crypto.
Final Conclusion
The progress in the US-China trade negotiations has provided a news-based impulse to end Bitcoin’s recent decline. Although this may be a temporary ‘reflexive move,’ it has successfully put the crypto market back on a growth path. Traders are now closely monitoring whether Bitcoin stabilizes above the $115,000 level and the outcomes of the APEC Summit. Due to global economic factors and strong institutional demand, the fundamental reasons for Bitcoin to move toward its fourth-quarter targets remain robust.
