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Popular crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen thinks macroeconomic indicators suggest altcoins will chip away against Bitcoin’s (BTC) dominance in the coming months.
In a new YouTube video, Cowen points his 807,000 subscribers to the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator, which tracks signals that could indicate the start of a recession.
The indicator flashes when “the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months,” according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The indicator hit 0.53 percentage points in July.
Explains Cowen,
“The point is that it’s giving a signal. Which means, whether you believe a recession is coming or not, it means looser monetary policy is coming. That’s what it means. And if looser monetary policy is coming, then Bitcoin dominance is going to be topping relatively soon. Could’ve already happened theoretically, I still think September at the earliest, maybe December at the latest. That’s my general view and we’re starting to see some of the reasons why.
The labor market is showing weakness. Look at job openings per unemployed worker. It’s back down to pre-pandemic levels. They haven’t cut rates yet. I mean this is likely only going to get worse until they cut rates.”
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