As of November 28, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) has stabilized above the crucial $91,000 mark, with the overall crypto market exhibiting notable stability. Amidst the low volatility seen over the past few days, market sentiment has improved from the “extreme fear” of last week (Fear and Greed Index has risen to 22). The immediate impetus for this recovery and stability is a sudden shift in the macroeconomic environment. The probability of an interest rate cut of 25 basis points (bps) at the upcoming FOMC meeting has surged from 39% to almost 87% in just a few days. This outlook of easing interest rates is a major favorable factor for risk assets like crypto.
Key Technical Outlook: The Fib Retracement
The current movement in Bitcoin’s price lends significant weight to Technical Analysis. BTC has successfully reclaimed the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level of the correction it experienced from November 11 to 21.
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Fib 61.8% Level: The 61.8% Fib level is considered a crucial turning point in financial markets, having acted as resistance during previous recovery attempts. Bitcoin stabilizing strongly above this level now signals a potential technical breakout.
According to analysis by Alex Kuptsikevich of FxPro, if sustained support above this 61.8% Fib level persists, the price has the potential to rise toward the psychologically and technically significant $100,000 level. Traders anticipate that unless this recovery momentum is lost, Bitcoin will soon attempt to break the next round of resistance levels.
Macroeconomic Catalyst and Investor Sentiment
As Bitcoin continues its technical recovery, the market expectation of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) provides a strong macro tailwind. A low-interest-rate environment reduces borrowing costs, causing investors to shift back to higher-yielding risk assets. The sudden increased probability of a rate cut is likely to bring money back into the market that investors have long hesitated to invest in Bitcoin and the crypto market.
Trader Sentiment and Market Data
Despite this optimism, market sentiment has not completely turned to greed. Data flow from large traders on the Deribit platform shows they are expecting an upside rally toward the $100,000 and $118,000 range. However, they express skepticism that Bitcoin can sustainably break the $120,000 area without clear macroeconomic impetus. This suggests institutional investors remain cautious.
Interestingly, K33 Research points to a divergence where Bitcoin has performed worse than the Nasdaq in 70% of trading sessions over the past month. This deviation, seen only occasionally since 2020, generally indicates that the market is near a local inflection point. This strengthens the argument that current prices could serve as a solid long-term entry point.
Altcoin Performance and Risk Indicators
Bitcoin’s stability has begun to impact the altcoin market. Although the overall altcoin market still appears sluggish, liquidity returns to riskier assets as market sentiment moves away from extreme fear.
- Ether (ETH) is up 7.7% on a weekly basis.
- XRP performed strongly with a weekly gain of over 10%.
However, not all altcoins saw uniform gains. Speculative flows exited high-beta names like Zcash (ZEC) and Monad (MON) to realize profits. Zcash dropped 8% in a single day, erasing a portion of its previous rally. This indicates that investors are ready to cash out even on small opportunities to realize gains.
Concerns Regarding Tether (Counter-Risk Factor)
Amidst these positive trends, a key risk factor in the stability index must be considered. S&P Global Ratings has downgraded Tether (USDT) to “Weak.” The rating downgrade was based on Tether’s exposure to riskier assets such as Bitcoin, gold, and corporate debt. While the rising price of Bitcoin strengthens Tether’s holdings on one hand, market anxiety about the reliability of a major stablecoin like USDT acts as a counter-risk factor to large-scale liquidity flow.
Conclusion
Bitcoin has technically reclaimed the highly significant 61.8% Fib level. With solid macroeconomic support signaling an interest rate cut, the environment for BTC to rally towards $100,000 is clearly favorable. However, Deribit data suggests the market is waiting for clearer policy decisions before attempting a move beyond $120,000. In summary, the market is moving out of fear, suggesting this could be an excellent entry point for prudent investors.
